{"id":8508,"date":"2026-05-14T06:22:52","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T21:22:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blackfire.work\/?p=8508"},"modified":"2026-05-14T06:22:54","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T21:22:54","slug":"%e7%8f%be%e4%bb%a3%e3%81%ae%e9%8c%ac%e9%87%91%e8%a1%93%ef%bc%9f%e6%9c%ac%e5%bd%93%e3%81%ae%e8%b2%bb%e7%94%a8%e3%82%82%e6%90%8d%e5%a4%b1%e3%82%82%e3%82%8f%e3%81%8b%e3%82%89%e3%81%aa%e3%81%8f%e3%81%aa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blackfire.work\/?p=8508","title":{"rendered":"\u73fe\u4ee3\u306e\u932c\u91d1\u8853\uff1f\u672c\u5f53\u306e\u8cbb\u7528\u3082\u640d\u5931\u3082\u308f\u304b\u3089\u306a\u304f\u306a\u308b\uff1fGoogle\u304b\u3089NVIDIA\u306bOpenAI\u306a\u3069\u306e\u975e\u4e0a\u5834AI\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\u30c8\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u307e\u3067&#8230;.AI\u30c6\u30c3\u30af\u306e\u4f1a\u8a08\u57fa\u6e96\u306e\u30ae\u30ea\u30ae\u30ea\u3092\u653b\u3081\u308b\u7c89\u98fe\u6c7a\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u304c\u30a8\u30b0\u3059\u304e\u308b"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>AI\u30c6\u30c3\u30af\u4f01\u696d\u306e\u300c\u7c89\u98fe\u307e\u304c\u3044\u306e\u6c7a\u7b97\u624b\u6cd5\u300d\u5b9f\u614b\u307e\u3068\u3081<\/strong><br>\u301c\u6e1b\u4fa1\u511f\u5374\u5ef6\u9577\u3001ARR\u64cd\u4f5c\u3001\u30aa\u30d5\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u30b7\u30fc\u30c8\u304cAI\u30d6\u30fc\u30e0\u306e\u5f71\u3067\u6a2a\u884c\u301c<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AI\u30d6\u30fc\u30e0\u306e\u71b1\u72c2\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u3001\u4e3b\u8981\u30c6\u30c3\u30af\u4f01\u696d\u3084\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\u30c8\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u304c\u5de8\u984d\u306e\u30ad\u30e3\u30d4\u30bf\u30eb\u30a8\u30af\u30b9\u30da\u30f3\u30c7\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\uff08Capex\uff09\u3092\u62b1\u3048\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3082\u300c\u597d\u6c7a\u7b97\u300d\u3092\u9023\u767a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6Michael Burry\u6c0f\u3092\u306f\u3058\u3081\u3068\u3059\u308b\u6279\u8a55\u5bb6\u306f\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3092<strong>\u4f1a\u8a08\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u306b\u3088\u308b\u5229\u76ca\u6c34\u5897\u3057<\/strong>\u3068\u6307\u6458\u3002GAAP\u306e\u7bc4\u56f2\u5185\u3067\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3082\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u7684\u4fa1\u5024\uff08\u7279\u306bAI\u30cf\u30fc\u30c9\u30a6\u30a7\u30a2\u306e\u6025\u901f\u9673\u8150\u5316\uff09\u3068\u4e56\u96e2\u3057\u305f\u624b\u6cd5\u304c\u554f\u984c\u8996\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u4f1a\u793e\u3054\u3068\u306b\u307e\u3068\u3081\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Microsoft\uff08MSFT\uff09\u30fbAlphabet\uff08Google, GOOG\uff09\u30fbMeta\uff08META\uff09<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e3b\u306a\u624b\u6cd5\uff1a\u6e1b\u4fa1\u511f\u5374\u671f\u9593\u306e\u5927\u5e45\u5ef6\u9577\uff08Depreciation Schedule Extension\uff09<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u300c\u30cf\u30a4\u30d1\u30fc\u30b9\u30b1\u30fc\u30e9\u30fc\u300d\u306f\u3001AI\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30f3\u30bf\u30fc\u5411\u3051GPU\/\u30b5\u30fc\u30d0\u30fc\u306e\u8010\u7528\u5e74\u6570\u3092<strong>3\u301c4\u5e74 \u2192 5\u301c6\u5e74<\/strong>\u306b\u5ef6\u9577\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u7d50\u679c\u30011\u5e74\u3042\u305f\u308a\u306e\u6e1b\u4fa1\u511f\u5374\u8cbb\u304c\u6e1b\u5c11\u3057\u3001\u5f53\u671f\u5229\u76ca\u3092<strong>20%\u524d\u5f8c\u62bc\u3057\u4e0a\u3052\u308b<\/strong>\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff08Burry\u6c0f\u8a66\u7b97\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Burry\u6c0f\u306f2025\u5e7411\u6708\u306eX\u6295\u7a3f\u3067\u300c2-3\u5e74\u30b5\u30a4\u30af\u30eb\u306eNvidia\u30c1\u30c3\u30d7\u30925-6\u5e74\u3067\u511f\u5374\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u73fe\u4ee3\u306e\u5178\u578b\u7684\u306a\u4f1a\u8a08\u8a50\u6b3a\u300d\u3068\u75db\u70c8\u6279\u5224\u30022026-2028\u5e74\u306b\u5408\u8a08<strong>\u7d041760\u5104\u30c9\u30eb<\/strong>\u306e\u6e1b\u4fa1\u511f\u5374\u8cbb understated\uff08\u904e\u5c11\u8a08\u4e0a\uff09\u30fb\u5229\u76ca overstated\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u6307\u6458\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u95a2\u9023X\u30dd\u30b9\u30c8\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff08@shanaka86\u6c0f\u306e\u8a73\u7d30\u5206\u6790\u6295\u7a3f\u3088\u308a\uff09\uff1a<br>\u300cBig Tech\u306f\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u306e\u4f1a\u8a08\u30c8\u30ea\u30c3\u30af\u3092\u5b9f\u884c\u4e2d\u30024000\u5104\u30c9\u30eb\u306eAI\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30e9\u6295\u8cc7\u30925\u5e74\u511f\u5374\uff08\u5e74800\u5104\u30c9\u30eb\uff09\u3060\u304c\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u306f2\u5e74\u5bff\u547d\u306a\u3089\u5e742000\u5104\u30c9\u30eb\u5fc5\u8981\u30021200\u5104\u30c9\u30eb\u306e\u30ae\u30e3\u30c3\u30d7\u304c2028\u5e74\u307e\u3067\u306b1500-2000\u5104\u30c9\u30eb\u306e\u5229\u76ca\u6c34\u5897\u3057\u3092\u751f\u3080\u3002\u300d<br>Meta\u306f2025\u5e74\u306b\u30b5\u30fc\u30d0\u30fc\u8010\u7528\u5e74\u6570\u30925.5\u5e74\u306b\u5ef6\u9577\u3057\u3001<strong>29\u5104\u30c9\u30eb\u306e\u6e1b\u4fa1\u511f\u5374\u8cbb\u524a\u6e1b<\/strong>\u3092\u5373\u5ea7\u306b\u8a08\u4e0a\u3057\u305f\u4e8b\u4f8b\u304c\u8c61\u5fb4\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u30aa\u30d5\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u30b7\u30fc\u30c8<\/strong>\u3082\u5171\u901a\uff1a\u672a\u7740\u624b\u30ea\u30fc\u30b9\u306a\u3069\u3092\u6d3b\u7528\u3057\u3001\u5de8\u984d\u50b5\u52d9\u3092\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u30b7\u30fc\u30c8\u5916\u306b\u96a0\u3059\u624b\u6cd5\u3067\u3001\u8ca0\u50b5\u3092\u4f4e\u304f\u898b\u305b\u304b\u3051\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Amazon\uff08AMZN\uff09<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e3b\u306a\u624b\u6cd5\uff1a\u6e1b\u4fa1\u511f\u5374\u5ef6\u9577 + \u30ea\u30fc\u30b9\u69cb\u9020\u306e\u6d3b\u7528<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u30b5\u30fc\u30d0\u30fc\u8010\u7528\u5e74\u6570\u3092\u5ef6\u9577\u3057\u305f\u4e00\u65b9\u3067\u3001\u4e00\u90e8\u3067\u306fAI\u9032\u5316\u3092\u7406\u7531\u306b\u77ed\u7e2e\uff08700\u767e\u4e07\u30c9\u30eb\u306e\u5229\u76ca\u6e1b\u5c11\u3092\u8a08\u4e0a\uff09\u3059\u308b\u306a\u3069\u3001\u67d4\u8edf\uff08\uff1f\uff09\u5bfe\u5fdc\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30bb\u30f3\u30bf\u30fc\u5efa\u8a2d\u3092SPV\uff08\u7279\u5225\u76ee\u7684\u4f1a\u793e\uff09\u3084\u9577\u671f\u30ea\u30fc\u30b9\u3067\u30aa\u30d5\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u5316\u3057\u3001\u5373\u6642Capex\u8ca0\u62c5\u3092\u8efd\u6e1b\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>AWS\u306eAI\u95a2\u9023\u58f2\u4e0a\u3082\u3001\u8907\u96d1\u306a\u53ce\u76ca\u8a8d\u8b58\u3067\u5c06\u6765\u898b\u901a\u3057\u3092\u5f37\u8abf\u3057\u3084\u3059\u3044\u69cb\u9020\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. NVIDIA\uff08NVDA\uff09\u81ea\u8eab<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u306a\u7c89\u98fe\u6307\u6458\u306f\u5c11\u306a\u3044\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001<strong>\u58f2\u4e0a\u5148\u306e\u4f1a\u8a08\u4f9d\u5b58<\/strong>\u304c\u9593\u63a5\u7684\u306b\u5f71\u97ff\u3002Big Tech\u306e\u5927\u91cf\u8cfc\u5165\u304cNvidia\u306e\u597d\u6c7a\u7b97\u3092\u652f\u3048\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u30cf\u30fc\u30c9\u30a6\u30a7\u30a2\u306e\u6025\u901f\u9673\u8150\u5316\uff08\u65b0\u30c1\u30c3\u30d7\u304c1\u5e74\u3054\u3068\u306b\u767b\u5834\uff09\u304c\u3001\u9867\u5ba2\u5074\u306e\u511f\u5374\u524d\u63d0\u3068\u77db\u76fe\u3059\u308b\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3092\u5b55\u3080\u3002\u4e8c\u6b21\u5e02\u5834\u3067\u306e\u4e2d\u53e4GPU\u4fa1\u683c\u4e0b\u843d\u304c\u300c\u7d4c\u6e08\u7684\u5bff\u547d\u306e\u77ed\u3055\u300d\u3092\u793a\u5506\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. OpenAI \/ Anthropic\u306a\u3069\u306eAI\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\u30c8\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u4e3b\u306a\u624b\u6cd5\uff1aARR\uff08Annual Recurring Revenue\uff09 \/ Contracted ARR\u306e\u64cd\u4f5c\u30fb\u53ce\u76ca\u8a8d\u8b58\u306e\u524d\u5012\u3057<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Contracted ARR<\/strong>\uff1a3\u5e74\u5951\u7d04\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u5206\uff08\u30b9\u30c6\u30c3\u30d7\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u4fa1\u683c\uff09\u307e\u3067\u542b\u3081\u3066\u5e74\u63db\u7b97\u8868\u793a\u3002\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u30ad\u30e3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e5\u30a4\u30f3\u306f\u5c11\u306a\u304f\u3001\u30aa\u30d7\u30c8\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u6761\u9805\u4ed8\u304d\u3067\u3082\u30d5\u30eb\u984d\u3092\u5ba3\u4f1d\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4f8b\uff1a\u5951\u7d041\u5e74\u76ee100\u4e07\u30c9\u30eb\u30012\u5e74\u76ee200\u4e07\u30013\u5e74\u76ee300\u4e07 \u2192 \u300cARR 300\u4e07\u30c9\u30eb\u300d\u3068\u5831\u544a\uff08\u5b9f\u8cea\u30ad\u30e3\u30c3\u30b7\u30e5\u306f100\u4e07\uff09\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Anthropic\u306fAWS\u7d4c\u7531\u58f2\u4e0a\u3092\u7dcf\u984d\u8a08\u4e0a\uff08Microsoft\u3068\u306e\u5dee\u7570\u3067\u8b70\u8ad6\u306b\uff09\u3002OpenAI\u306f\u7d14\u984d\u8a08\u4e0a\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u8a66\u7528\u671f\u9593\u3084\u672a\u78ba\u5b9a\u5c06\u6765\u53ce\u76ca\u3092ARR\u306b\u542b\u3081\u308b\u300c\u30b0\u30ec\u30fc\u30be\u30fc\u30f3\u300d\u304c\u6a2a\u884c\u3002VC\u8cc7\u91d1\u8abf\u9054\u306e\u305f\u3081\u306e\u300c\u898b\u305b\u65b9\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6279\u5224\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u95a2\u9023X\u30dd\u30b9\u30c8\u4f8b<\/strong>\uff08@scottastevenson\u6c0f\u306eviral\u6295\u7a3f\uff09\uff1a<br>\u300cAI\u30b9\u30bf\u30fc\u30c8\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u306e\u5de8\u5927\u306a\u8a50\u6b3a\u3092\u66b4\u9732\uff1aContracted ARR\u30023\u5e74\u5951\u7d04\u306e\u5c06\u6765\u4fa1\u683c\u307e\u3067\u542b\u3081\u3066ARR\u30923\u500d\u306b\u6c34\u5897\u3057\u3002\u30aa\u30d7\u30c8\u30a2\u30a6\u30c8\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3082\u30d5\u30eb\u984d\u5ba3\u4f1d\u3002\u8a18\u8005\u3084\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304c\u3053\u308c\u306b\u4e57\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chamath Palihapitiya\u6c0f\u306a\u3069\u3082\u3001OpenAI\u3068Anthropic\u306e\u53ce\u76ca\u5831\u544a\u57fa\u6e96\u306e\u9055\u3044\u3092\u300c\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u30dc\u30fc\u30c9\u304c\u58ca\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u300d\u3068\u6307\u6458\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u306a\u305c\u4eca\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3089\u304c\u554f\u984c\u8996\u3055\u308c\u308b\u306e\u304b\uff1f<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>AI\u6295\u8cc7\u306e\u898f\u6a21<\/strong>\uff1a\u6570\u5343\u5104\u30c9\u30eb\u306eCapex\u304c\u7d9a\u304d\u3001Free Cash 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